Polymarket World Cup volume tops $3.3B as longshots soak up bets

Prediction markets are pulling in sports traders at a scale crypto investors should notice. World Cup contracts on Polymarket have passed $3.3 billion in volume, more than double the roughly $1.4 billion tied to this year's Super Bowl, showing how a global tournament can drive sustained activity on event markets.

Current pricing is far more concentrated than the headline volume suggests. France is the narrow favorite to win the World Cup at 23%, with Argentina close behind at 21%. Spain sits at 11%, England at 10%, and Brazil at 6%. In the market for reaching the final, France is at 39%, Argentina at 38%, and Spain at 23%.

Even so, about $1.6 billion has been traded on teams priced at 1% or lower to win the tournament. Ivory Coast has seen about $101 million in winner-market volume, Mexico $97 million, Egypt $90 million, Cape Verde $87 million, and Morocco $82 million. That gap points to how prediction markets work: old positions can stay open, fan buying can distort volume, and heavy trading does not always reflect current odds.

The surge is also widening attention on the sector. Bernstein said World Cup trading could pass $10 billion before the tournament ends, while The Wall Street Journal reported that the CFTC has opened an investigation into Polymarket.