CLARITY Act odds slip as Senate clock and Trump demands tighten

Crypto investors watching for US market-structure rules now face a narrower path for the CLARITY Act in 2026. Galaxy Digital lowered its estimate for the bill becoming law this year to 50%, down from 60% earlier in June. On Polymarket, traders are even less confident, pricing the odds at 44%.

The main problem is time. The Senate still needs a single text that bridges the Banking and Agriculture committees, then floor debate, amendments, and another House vote on any final version. Galaxy said its lower forecast reflects the calendar more than a breakdown in policy talks. The bill remains on the Senate calendar after clearing the Banking Committee in mid-May, and no procedural steps to start debate have been filed.

Another complication is competition for floor time. According to Galaxy, the Senate is already dealing with the defense authorization bill and FISA reauthorization. President Donald Trump has added pressure by opposing a bipartisan housing bill unless Congress also passes the SAVE Act, an elections measure that faces strong Senate resistance.

The bill also still has policy disputes to resolve. Some Democrats want stricter ethics rules, tougher conflict-of-interest standards, and stronger anti-money laundering provisions. There is also disagreement over language from the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act that would limit when developers and infrastructure providers are treated as financial intermediaries.